EUROPEANS LARGELY FAVOR INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING, ITALY AN EXCEPTION

Brussels – Support for increased military spending is widespread across Europe, yet most citizens appear skeptical about achieving security and defense independence from the United States by the end of the decade. This is according to a new survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), an independent think tank specializing in foreign and security policy, which surveyed 16,400 respondents across twelve European countries.

The majority of respondents expressed support for increasing national defense budgets, with particularly strong majorities in Poland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Estonia, and Portugal.

Italy Bucks the Trend: Majority Opposes Rearmament

In Romania, 50% favored increased spending, while figures dropped in Spain (46%), France (45%), Hungary (45%), Germany (47%), and Switzerland (40%). Italy stood out as the sole exception, with a majority (57%) stating they were "partially" or "strongly" opposed to increased military expenditure.

However, the survey also reveals strong skepticism regarding the EU's ability to achieve independence from the United States in defense and security within the next five years. Only in Denmark and Portugal do a majority of respondents feel optimistic about achieving autonomy before the end of the decade. In France and Romania, most respondents also believe this is possible (44% and 45% respectively).

Skepticism About Autonomy from the US in Poland, Estonia, and Spain

Conversely, the majority of respondents in Poland, Estonia, and Spain think otherwise. The same applies to Italy and Hungary, where 54% and 51% respectively believe that European autonomy in security and defense is "very difficult" or "practically impossible" to achieve in the next five years.

Germans, however, were roughly evenly split on the issue, with 44% deeming it achievable and 45% considering it difficult or rather impossible.

Despite this, the survey indicates that support for Ukraine is not conditional on continued aid from Washington. A majority of respondents oppose the idea of Europe withdrawing its military support for Ukraine, pushing Ukraine to cede Russian-occupied territory, or lifting economic sanctions against Russia, even if the United States were to change its policy on these matters.

The Donald Trump Effect and the Emergence of Anti-American Sentiments

These findings are partly influenced by the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House and the anti-European rhetoric he and some members of his administration have used regarding defense and international trade. This rhetoric has fueled the emergence of anti-American sentiments in some European countries.

However, while a majority of citizens in ten out of twelve countries believe Trump is harming EU-US relations, the prevailing view is that relations will improve once he leaves office.

The survey results were released ahead of the annual NATO summit in The Hague, where 32 leaders of NATO member states are expected to attend. Trump has called for the Alliance's defense spending target to be raised from the current 2% of GDP to 5% and has cast doubt on Washington's long-term support for European security.

Spain Resists 5% Military Spending Target

The proposal currently under discussion suggests an increase to 3.5% for core military spending, with an additional 1.5% for defense-related investments, which would include infrastructure, cybersecurity, and funds to promote a whole-of-society approach to security.

However, Spain has expressed reservations about the new target, which requires unanimous approval from all allies. Last week, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wrote in a letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that Madrid "cannot commit to a specific spending target in terms of GDP."

"For Spain, committing to a 5% target would not only be unreasonable, but also counterproductive, as it would deviate Spain from optimal spending and hinder ongoing efforts within the EU to strengthen its security and defense ecosystem," Sánchez clarified in the letter, which the Associated Press has reviewed.

The Issue of Budget Rule Derogations in Europe

The ECFR survey indicates that respondents in Spain appear more concerned that their country is not spending enough on defense, at the expense of their security, rather than spending too much at the expense of other public spending sectors. However, the gap between these two positions is minimal. Moreover, the vast majority did not express an opinion on the matter.

On the same issue, the twelve countries were evenly split: Denmark, the UK, Poland, Romania, and Germany sided with their Spanish counterparts, while the other six countries favored the opposite stance.

The EU has sought to allay some concerns with its defense production and deployment enhancement program, which aims to encourage member states to invest €800 billion in the sector over the next four years.

The main financial leverage of the plan comes from the possibility for member states to be granted derogations from strict European budgetary rules, provided that the additional spending is exclusively for defense. This has not been done, however, for other emergencies, such as the fight against climate change.

The other pillar, called SAFE, provides for the Commission to provide loans to member states at preferential rates compared to what most of them would obtain by raising money on the market. The executive body in Brussels is also allowing unused EU funds, previously earmarked for other programs, to be reinvested in rearmament.

Defense is expected to be one of the main topics on the agenda of the EU leaders' summit to be held on Thursday in Brussels.