IRREGULAR ENTRIES INTO THE EU DOWN 20%, BUT CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN ROUTE SEES RESURGENCE FROM LIBYA

BRUSSELS • In the first five months of 2025, Frontex recorded a 20% overall decrease in irregular entries into the EU compared to the previous year, with 63,700 total arrivals. However, the Central Mediterranean route saw a slight 7% increase, driven by a significant rise in departures from Libya, while those from Tunisia have almost ceased.

Brussels – In the first five months of the year, irregular entries of migrants into the EU territory decreased by 20 percent compared to the same period in 2024. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) recorded a total of 63,700 arrivals, with approximately one-third coming from the Central Mediterranean route.

Already declining last year, these figures seem to confirm the effectiveness of stricter policies adopted by the Union and its member states, as well as some agreements stipulated with countries of origin and transit to block departures. Tunisian authorities, bolstered by the European Commission's economic and logistical support, have almost brought departures to a standstill: according to Frontex data, the drop in departures from Tunisia compared to a year ago is 90 percent.

However, the Central Mediterranean route recorded 22,700 irregular crossings, a slight 7 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. This surge, which has nullified the efforts of Kais Saied's authoritarian government in Tunisia, occurred in neighboring and unstable Libya, from which most migrants on the route towards Italy departed.

The Eastern Mediterranean was the second busiest route since the beginning of 2025, with 15,600 irregular crossings, down 30% from 2024. Arrivals in Spain and the Canary Islands also decreased by a third: the West African route recorded 11,100 entries. In this case – in addition to "adverse weather conditions" – Frontex attributes the significant decline to "stricter border controls and more stringent migration policies in Mauritania," with which Brussels signed a €210 million migration partnership last spring, and generally to "greater cooperation between the EU and countries of departure."

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in the first five months of the year, at least 651 migrants lost their lives attempting to cross the Mediterranean. In the same period of 2024, the dead and missing numbered 1,178.

From the Western Balkans and the EU's eastern borders, irregular arrivals decreased by 56 percent and 7 percent respectively, totaling approximately 9,000 migrants. Notably, however, there was a 17 percent increase in those attempting to reach the United Kingdom from the French coast: during these months, the English Channel was crossed by 25,540 people. According to Frontex, "trafficking networks operating in the area are adapting, using simultaneous departures to increase the number of successful crossings."